Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
32.3 miles North-West of Gabbs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
32.3 miles North-West of Gabbs
39.2528°N, 118.2617°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of May 2026
May 20, 2026 05:10:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
221h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M2.26 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 10.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8b40c771dea2e72a45f6af0ba1dbfc9cf9c0635440ec298397e906ae4056ab3e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260510_161124_pred-39.25--118.26-20260520T0510
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 23:11:28 PST
Source Batch
20260510_161124_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:48.384220+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.