Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
9.5 miles North-East of Marysville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.5 miles North-East of Marysville
39.2705°N, 121.5183°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of May 2026
May 26, 2026 07:35:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
368h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
100.3 km
0.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
15.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
5.8 km
Pred. 7.1 km vs actual 1.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b9fa45ea8b9070a391de9bd86aee5ea533b3461c76c487f90f596175a1e0cf54
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260510_161124_pred-39.27--121.52-20260526T0735
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 23:11:28 PST
Source Batch
20260510_161124_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:48.384220+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.