Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
9.8 miles North of Pine Mountain Club
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.8 miles North of Pine Mountain Club
34.9860°N, 119.1427°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of May 2026
May 17, 2026 21:03:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
156h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
110.3 km
10.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
20.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
6.7 km
Pred. 4.7 km vs actual 2.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fe8e5e26876624a99e42f580977440461d4d66b81286ca642f4ef4b3b58776ad
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260511_020020_pred-34.99--119.14-20260517T2103
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 11, 2026 09:00:24 PST
Source Batch
20260511_020020_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:43.198965+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.