Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
27.2 miles South-East of Battle Mountain
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
27.2 miles South-East of Battle Mountain
40.4010°N, 116.5260°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 17:59:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
104h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
218.0 km
118.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
1.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.48
Predicted M2.68 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
14.2 km
Pred. 3.2 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
655f759ce6533fd05352ba6c5a535fc0f65802446f74efeb53cb3f8223599ba0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260511_020020_pred-40.40--116.53-20260515T1759
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 11, 2026 09:00:24 PST
Source Batch
20260511_020020_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:43.198965+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.