Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
3.2 miles East of Banning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.2 miles East of Banning
33.9367°N, 116.8221°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 07:35:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1962h 3m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
45.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.29
Predicted M2.91 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
11.3 km
Pred. 6.3 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7d3ba81004510366438482d743a0e05ddda5c7f953c58fbaaf8aafbb3c919f5a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260511_063127_pred-33.94--116.82-20260801T0735
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 11, 2026 13:31:31 PST
Source Batch
20260511_063127_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:44.017367+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.