Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
123.1 miles South-West of Gaviota
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
123.1 miles South-West of Gaviota
32.8653°N, 121.1543°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of May 2026
May 11, 2026 17:53:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
268.6 km
168.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
29.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.47
Predicted M2.57 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.3 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 8.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
122d91eaccb05ab718fb7a653003d24154afe62867e12d853ce8eae8fa5045a6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260511_134023_pred-32.87--121.15-20260511T1753
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 11, 2026 20:40:27 PST
Source Batch
20260511_134023_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:44.735025+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.