Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
16.0 miles North-West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.0 miles North-West of Warm Springs
38.3957°N, 116.4990°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of May 2026
May 27, 2026 14:38:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
377h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
6.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
9.8 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 6.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f9437a858cc4e2387e890680fd51cf7a7884c0f8c7adb1609e9892046942d345
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260511_134023_pred-38.40--116.50-20260527T1438
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 11, 2026 20:40:27 PST
Source Batch
20260511_134023_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:44.735025+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.