Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
2.3 miles North of Marietta
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.3 miles North of Marietta
38.4150°N, 118.5650°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of May 2026
May 26, 2026 16:21:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
355h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
42.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.07 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
15.4 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 12.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
da9358c5f83f39ca0bcba60fb994fbbcfd47df9c278e2b65492f4150b6400fd8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260511_134023_pred-38.41--118.56-20260526T1621
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 11, 2026 20:40:27 PST
Source Batch
20260511_134023_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:44.735025+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.