Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
47.4 miles South-West of Point Arena
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
47.4 miles South-West of Point Arena
38.4523°N, 124.3493°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of May 2026
May 27, 2026 16:43:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
380h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
139.3 km
39.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
22.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.35 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
5.2 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 1.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c76bf52bcebb735f7ae52d37563a2ef350c12aa21719011043ea093815fcf5bc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260511_134023_pred-38.45--124.35-20260527T1643
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 11, 2026 20:40:27 PST
Source Batch
20260511_134023_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:44.735025+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.