Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
16.8 miles South-West of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.8 miles South-West of Austin
39.2991°N, 117.2586°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of May 2026
May 16, 2026 02:54:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
102h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
115.9 km
15.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
10.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M1.95 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
12.7 km
Pred. 1.7 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ea17137da30fcf516c41952d64173d36f9e01cc88a362a86dfac699ca84cd9ab
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260511_134023_pred-39.30--117.26-20260516T0254
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 11, 2026 20:40:27 PST
Source Batch
20260511_134023_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:44.735025+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.