Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
107.6 miles South-West of Point Arena
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
107.6 miles South-West of Point Arena
37.5981°N, 124.7637°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of June 2026
Jun 29, 2026 09:28:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1160h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
299.0 km
199.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.64
Predicted M3.24 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
18.1 km
Pred. 10.1 km vs actual 8.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
85fdb12d051b538b838884acaba679c786bc63798f1fb53309a1e07308c426c1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260511_182227_pred-37.60--124.76-20260629T0928
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 12, 2026 01:22:31 PST
Source Batch
20260511_182227_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:45.741267+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.