Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
2.9 miles North-West of Haiwee
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.9 miles North-West of Haiwee
36.1609°N, 117.9931°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 18:27:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
249h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
43.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.65 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 5.7 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
44ca742b945175f834291e29ee6a47c4e4a193167b18a195b505853791768371
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_014928_pred-36.16--117.99-20260522T1827
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 12, 2026 08:49:33 PST
Source Batch
20260512_014928_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:39.167254+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.