Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
13.5 miles North-West of Beatty
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.5 miles North-West of Beatty
37.0627°N, 116.9072°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of May 2026
May 19, 2026 19:44:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
178h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
41.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
26.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.51
Predicted M2.81 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
18.0 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 11.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5a62f7b67220daef266e064e41eb9286324fef9897469a62a81b471c9dc29ebd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_014928_pred-37.06--116.91-20260519T1944
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 12, 2026 08:49:33 PST
Source Batch
20260512_014928_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:39.167254+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.