Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
14.3 miles South of Schurz
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.3 miles South of Schurz
38.7457°N, 118.8541°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 09:10:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
264h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
66.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
20.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.24
Predicted M2.24 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
18.4 km
Pred. 9.7 km vs actual 8.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fa15b42b0112cd0b2551b3d557ad2b5e74336803aa7e1a24637d79e70feef58f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_014928_pred-38.75--118.85-20260523T0910
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 12, 2026 08:49:33 PST
Source Batch
20260512_014928_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:39.167254+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.