Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.8
27.2 miles East of Covelo
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
27.2 miles East of Covelo
39.8725°N, 122.7453°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 09:32:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
264h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
135.4 km
35.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M1.78 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
16.9 km
Pred. 9.7 km vs actual 7.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
26061c36e06d245798f20df213e98ca2b3b2146074df917551f6ea1cd4741d57
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_014928_pred-39.87--122.75-20260523T0932
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 12, 2026 08:49:33 PST
Source Batch
20260512_014928_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:39.167254+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.