Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
6.0 miles North-West of Susanville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.0 miles North-West of Susanville
40.4877°N, 120.7167°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of May 2026
May 28, 2026 05:42:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
380h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
66.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.28
Predicted M2.58 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
11.5 km
Pred. 4.1 km vs actual 7.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7469e61196458d6a86b91a27a1608a8f7a1c03455099ca23cdb7589659558509
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_014928_pred-40.49--120.72-20260528T0542
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 12, 2026 08:49:33 PST
Source Batch
20260512_014928_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:39.167254+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.