Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
149.4 miles South-West of Lompoc
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
149.4 miles South-West of Lompoc
33.2916°N, 122.4974°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of July 2026
Jul 01, 2026 10:20:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1196h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
316.1 km
216.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
16.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.03
Predicted M3.23 vs actual M2.2
- 0.03 over limit
Depth Error
10.0 km
Pred. 4.3 km vs actual 5.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
49eeff4e16cf3029ea0ed19b23e041cb5465da9b1232a84beb42e48ed4b5efcc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_070341_pred-33.29--122.50-20260701T1020
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 12, 2026 14:03:45 PST
Source Batch
20260512_070341_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:40.304012+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.