Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
126.9 miles South-West of Gualala
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
126.9 miles South-West of Gualala
37.1511°N, 124.6420°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 03:34:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1981h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
248.0 km
148.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.97
Predicted M2.97 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
9.6 km
Pred. 8.1 km vs actual 1.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
44b1221d9013e674281ee5682f845b428eb532bdd3682ff5770d83af617bd523
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_070341_pred-37.15--124.64-20260803T0334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 12, 2026 14:03:45 PST
Source Batch
20260512_070341_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:40.304012+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.