Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
26.6 miles South-West of Redwood City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.6 miles South-West of Redwood City
37.1545°N, 122.4841°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 03:34:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1975h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
75.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.87
Predicted M2.97 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
10.8 km
Pred. 8.1 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
255097a735b0bbd8a735ba665bd0fc93d3a68e6071259d56e63d62edbe234e3a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_125458_pred-37.15--122.48-20260803T0334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 12, 2026 19:55:02 PST
Source Batch
20260512_125458_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:41.203959+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.