Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
16.2 miles North-East of Yerington
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.2 miles North-East of Yerington
39.2039°N, 119.0467°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of June 2026
Jun 15, 2026 01:14:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
797h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
9.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.03 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
19.0 km
Pred. 9.0 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4f38313810ae58b4d9a9fab74324166a92343e63879e66fc53b73b28ab776f9e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_125458_pred-39.20--119.05-20260615T0114
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 12, 2026 19:55:02 PST
Source Batch
20260512_125458_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:41.203959+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.