Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
10.7 miles South-East of Red Mountain
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.7 miles South-East of Red Mountain
35.2700°N, 117.4795°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of May 2026
May 30, 2026 14:48:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
418h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
29.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.55
Predicted M2.65 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 7.3 km vs actual 7.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
435e21f9e9697ea87e277d74db0ef74acccf0c87b0b4e4d226cadcbd4cfe5e18
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_213603_pred-35.27--117.48-20260530T1448
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 13, 2026 04:36:07 PST
Source Batch
20260512_213603_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:42.133640+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.