Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
2.5 miles North-East of Blair Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.5 miles North-East of Blair Junction
38.0162°N, 118.1122°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of May 2026
May 24, 2026 20:28:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
279h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
32.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.03 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
12.2 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 5.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e88709366a1c2995048415d9e1995dfe8c4f6da13e72a50892bfcb100d6f84d4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_213603_pred-38.02--118.11-20260524T2028
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 13, 2026 04:36:07 PST
Source Batch
20260512_213603_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:42.133640+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.