Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
12.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2639°N, 119.0742°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of May 2026
May 26, 2026 13:16:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
320h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
66.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.39
Predicted M2.39 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
19.3 km
Pred. 7.3 km vs actual 12.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9b87004c2c3215136e2d8d17b0592ec399cfcc49e8f51cdc2dbb3761996eb99f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_213603_pred-39.26--119.07-20260526T1316
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 13, 2026 04:36:07 PST
Source Batch
20260512_213603_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:42.133640+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.