Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
3.3 miles South-East of Truckee
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.3 miles South-East of Truckee
39.2878°N, 120.1510°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of May 2026
May 31, 2026 05:46:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
433h 10m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
9.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
30.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.53
Predicted M2.43 vs actual M1.9
Depth Error
13.0 km
Pred. 7.3 km vs actual 5.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cad172aff713a15b2c7e55d43a30697b233122e7c8d87d288b1b20d90823722d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_213603_pred-39.29--120.15-20260531T0546
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 13, 2026 04:36:07 PST
Source Batch
20260512_213603_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:42.133640+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.