Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
7.5 miles North-East of Myers Flat
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.5 miles North-East of Myers Flat
40.3652°N, 123.8058°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of May 2026
May 30, 2026 18:34:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
421h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
56.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.55 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
41.0 km
Pred. 7.3 km vs actual 33.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1552d9dd18cbd37d8825ec28643d47b004e001431994ebba891a8495d0223341
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_213603_pred-40.37--123.81-20260530T1834
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 13, 2026 04:36:07 PST
Source Batch
20260512_213603_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:42.133640+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.