Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
2.2 miles South of Bombay Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.2 miles South of Bombay Beach
33.3214°N, 115.7428°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of July 2026
Jul 05, 2026 20:15:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1280h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
41.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.81
Predicted M3.51 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
20.4 km
Pred. 10.4 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
98b7ef7c9a0ef1dfd8c865c127f8b8de210eaa1b3c58ce6e9bad81a5baa0b8f1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260513_044602_pred-33.32--115.74-20260705T2015
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 13, 2026 11:46:06 PST
Source Batch
20260513_044602_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:36.210613+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.