Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
9.6 miles North of Portola
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.6 miles North of Portola
39.9435°N, 120.5213°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of June 2026
Jun 11, 2026 09:42:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
13.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
693h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
54.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.96
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
15.3 km
Pred. 13.6 km vs actual 1.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c7cdd923695496f046e142c8ae97d76cdaa57a8d982817b967a365bc26a1bffa
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260513_044602_pred-39.94--120.52-20260611T0942
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 13, 2026 11:46:06 PST
Source Batch
20260513_044602_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:36.210613+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.