Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
10.6 miles South-West of Oak Grove
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.6 miles South-West of Oak Grove
33.2546°N, 116.8676°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of May 2026
May 25, 2026 12:58:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
282h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
90.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.40
Predicted M2.0 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
9.5 km
Pred. 9.8 km vs actual 0.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d7f8b95c55d89bd827137e078f8e6ba6266046138e980fd3a09359e71b85374f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260513_112828_pred-33.25--116.87-20260525T1258
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 13, 2026 18:28:33 PST
Source Batch
20260513_112828_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:37.279067+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.