Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
18.5 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.5 miles North of Warm Springs
38.4420°N, 116.4718°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of June 2026
Jun 01, 2026 01:57:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
439h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
3.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
20.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.26 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
8.6 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f05940ec87331a395e7917b404fdce3e7dc20ee6e5d4c86f6314429fb16bff83
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260513_112828_pred-38.44--116.47-20260601T0157
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 13, 2026 18:28:33 PST
Source Batch
20260513_112828_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:37.279067+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.