Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
14.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2546°N, 119.0308°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of May 2026
May 31, 2026 05:04:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
418h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
9.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.42
Predicted M2.52 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.5 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 7.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2b2c7c151f9a03cd442b1732040b86ad48703c460844cdecb02a61df36c3dfa5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260513_112828_pred-39.25--119.03-20260531T0504
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 13, 2026 18:28:33 PST
Source Batch
20260513_112828_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:37.279067+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.