Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
4.7 miles West of Old Station
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.7 miles West of Old Station
40.6543°N, 121.5213°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of June 2026
Jun 01, 2026 01:31:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
439h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
84.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.09 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
13.1 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 6.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7e289e60e689b070c44e1a08fd1d05e68c067e93ba85f98f9eb0beeb493d1ef7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260513_112828_pred-40.65--121.52-20260601T0131
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 13, 2026 18:28:33 PST
Source Batch
20260513_112828_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:37.279067+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.