Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
2.2 miles East of China Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.2 miles East of China Lake
35.6668°N, 117.6470°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of July 2026
Jul 04, 2026 12:18:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
13.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1234h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
42.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.61
Predicted M3.61 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
20.9 km
Pred. 13.6 km vs actual 7.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
16db09d19c78daf71db89cef796d2349ee1d13252aeffbe4d676679d2b2037a6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260513_183631_pred-35.67--117.65-20260704T1218
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 01:36:36 PST
Source Batch
20260513_183631_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:38.093369+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.