Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
21.3 miles South of Rachel
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.3 miles South of Rachel
37.3414°N, 115.7428°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of July 2026
Jul 05, 2026 20:15:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1266h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
90.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
82.7 h
46.7 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M3.51 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
20.6 km
Pred. 10.4 km vs actual 10.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d5f0aa074eadaa4febb1ab47c846efc2f308118fe5ac91f3f2919d0968d4b10e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260513_183631_pred-37.34--115.74-20260705T2015
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 01:36:36 PST
Source Batch
20260513_183631_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:38.093369+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.