Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
16.4 miles East of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.4 miles East of Belmont NV
38.5663°N, 116.5397°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 15:48:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
196h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
11.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
56.9 h
20.9 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.52
Predicted M2.52 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
9.5 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 3.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c7e9fe1dfd80a8f2310355ab3a1329c55fc0b584f26826be3a51a332a05f710f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_035742_pred-38.57--116.54-20260522T1548
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 10:57:47 PST
Source Batch
20260514_035742_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:30.548559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.