Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
4.3 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.3 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7678°N, 122.8508°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of May 2026
May 30, 2026 03:45:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
376h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
8.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M1.92 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
10.6 km
Pred. 9.0 km vs actual 1.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4786b53b305f059ca313b276ba82a9796b5f0cdb0d247104d861ae1898c41d6f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_035742_pred-38.77--122.85-20260530T0345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 10:57:47 PST
Source Batch
20260514_035742_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:30.548559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.