Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
1.3 miles South-West of Ukiah
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.3 miles South-West of Ukiah
39.1342°N, 123.2187°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of May 2026
May 26, 2026 13:35:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
290h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
29.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M2.11 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
12.6 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 6.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f1209da3a6aeebb77ba76c03427de8127fd99c3d2c40ff1e49df3b49cd751702
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_035742_pred-39.13--123.22-20260526T1335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 10:57:47 PST
Source Batch
20260514_035742_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:30.548559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.