Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
29.5 miles South of Refugio
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
29.5 miles South of Refugio
34.0424°N, 120.1660°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 11:42:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
23.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2155h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
145.7 km
45.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
9.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.82
Predicted M3.52 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
28.1 km
Pred. 23.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5af5a1546bc27ef2ad471b8259ba7b6241e43c883a80420759ed18bd16152551
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_085158_pred-34.04--120.17-20260812T1142
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 15:52:02 PST
Source Batch
20260514_085158_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:32.602444+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.