Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
4.1 miles East of Castro Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.1 miles East of Castro Valley
37.7148°N, 122.0146°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of June 2026
Jun 15, 2026 22:44:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
774h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
98.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.50
Predicted M3.7 vs actual M2.2
- 0.50 over limit
Depth Error
11.3 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 0.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
da9d2efba72f9693ed49679c20462462298279846ecc4f9184f38ef4f9ada18d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_085158_pred-37.71--122.01-20260615T2244
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 15:52:02 PST
Source Batch
20260514_085158_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:32.602444+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.