Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
4.4 miles South of San Ramon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.4 miles South of San Ramon
37.7185°N, 122.0019°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of June 2026
Jun 16, 2026 11:14:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
787h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
143.2 km
43.2 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
16.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.55
Predicted M3.55 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
18.2 km
Pred. 12.8 km vs actual 5.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b7f5612694f053d943dfc7e82edd47b6c54816a59066eaee86ec09d24bae7a9f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_085158_pred-37.72--122.00-20260616T1114
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 15:52:02 PST
Source Batch
20260514_085158_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:32.602444+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.