Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
62.4 miles South-West of Rancho Palos Verdes
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
62.4 miles South-West of Rancho Palos Verdes
32.9583°N, 118.9205°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of May 2026
May 24, 2026 21:06:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
238h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
96.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
10.2 km
Pred. 7.8 km vs actual 2.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ac797e90440d0283811b3fd082ff12cd64047b46f9eedbd0b7e34660700ce61c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_155306_pred-32.96--118.92-20260524T2106
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 22:53:11 PST
Source Batch
20260514_155306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:33.480420+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.