Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
18.7 miles South of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.7 miles South of Crystal Springs
37.0877°N, 115.3013°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of May 2026
May 26, 2026 10:44:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
275h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
4.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
56.3 h
20.3 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.31 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
15.2 km
Pred. 3.6 km vs actual 11.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b8140d183c98735265d9a3dd10fc92eccc3f7181318b1688e429e60c266a1ab8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_155306_pred-37.09--115.30-20260526T1044
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 22:53:11 PST
Source Batch
20260514_155306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:33.480420+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.