Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
7.9 miles South-West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.9 miles South-West of Warm Springs
38.1262°N, 116.5099°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of June 2026
Jun 03, 2026 13:23:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
470h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
75.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
34.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.29 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
10.1 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 3.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4445178b47f83d40db2e502dca81895b87c2456037bdcd72275810f85826462b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_155306_pred-38.13--116.51-20260603T1323
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 22:53:11 PST
Source Batch
20260514_155306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:33.480420+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.