Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
16.7 miles North-West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.7 miles North-West of Warm Springs
38.4061°N, 116.5041°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of May 2026
May 31, 2026 21:13:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
406h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.69
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
6.6 km
Pred. 3.8 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cfa93f3aa472d99b9bb442f450ba15fa01ad38778d4044fb9a683ba0557b845c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_155306_pred-38.41--116.50-20260531T2113
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 22:53:11 PST
Source Batch
20260514_155306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:33.480420+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.