Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
12.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2360°N, 119.1274°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of May 2026
May 27, 2026 02:09:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
291h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
66.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.17 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 12.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5d080cb0d5bf49ab27b149cb17d98b65a334357a78f7d4963d2ecaa8feb94aa7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_155306_pred-39.24--119.13-20260527T0209
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 22:53:11 PST
Source Batch
20260514_155306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:33.480420+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.