Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
13.6 miles South-East of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.6 miles South-East of Empire
40.4733°N, 119.1242°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of May 2026
May 30, 2026 13:51:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
374h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
51.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M2.29 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.9 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 6.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d2c0cfaaca6eff87e8801c53556c39c410361b4ca37f64e6c9b06089f7d5a718
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_155306_pred-40.47--119.12-20260530T1351
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 14, 2026 22:53:11 PST
Source Batch
20260514_155306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:33.480420+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.