Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
3.5 miles West of Dublin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.5 miles West of Dublin
37.7126°N, 121.9981°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of June 2026
Jun 01, 2026 10:31:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
413h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
26.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.32
Predicted M2.62 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
15.6 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c23debb82437595671589f1e641cd849f2da8d5298387f2e4edb116c33ffd690
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_215016_pred-37.71--122.00-20260601T1031
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 04:50:21 PST
Source Batch
20260514_215016_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:35.465397+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.