Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
10.1 miles South-East of Manhattan
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.1 miles South-East of Manhattan
38.4068°N, 116.9880°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of June 2026
Jun 01, 2026 09:51:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
413h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
32.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.64
Predicted M2.64 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
10.0 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 3.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2dd4ad78b604277ea3523f5628a095a3d34542aef1cbeccbeba62b64d6509093
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260514_215016_pred-38.41--116.99-20260601T0951
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 04:50:21 PST
Source Batch
20260514_215016_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:35.465397+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.