Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
1.7 miles East of Union City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.7 miles East of Union City
37.5897°N, 122.0129°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of July 2026
Jul 01, 2026 01:50:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1120h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
61.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.50
Predicted M3.7 vs actual M2.2
- 0.50 over limit
Depth Error
13.9 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 3.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
21e1b7710bcfdd02e52a935c982f9f932011f2388ea2d72d167594b7f962c5a3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_024111_pred-37.59--122.01-20260701T0150
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 09:41:16 PST
Source Batch
20260515_024111_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:19.878613+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.