Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
4.4 miles North of Colusa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.4 miles North of Colusa
39.2781°N, 122.0019°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of July 2026
Jul 01, 2026 14:20:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1132h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
78.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
35.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M3.55 vs actual M3.8
Depth Error
38.5 km
Pred. 12.8 km vs actual 25.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
52321273f2e2a613169635ec5ddb0aeca135bdf07d70c176a97f8129a232153b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_024111_pred-39.28--122.00-20260701T1420
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 09:41:16 PST
Source Batch
20260515_024111_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:19.878613+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.