Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
50.4 miles South of Malibu
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
50.4 miles South of Malibu
33.3233°N, 119.0156°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of June 2026
Jun 04, 2026 11:14:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
470h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
34.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
15.6 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 9.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5c3f2af6971493b996503fd672992e846eb16d25382774763a070988dcb01cb5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260515_131659_pred-33.32--119.02-20260604T1114
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 15, 2026 20:17:04 PST
Source Batch
20260515_131659_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:20.780960+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.